Matt SvansonFITTED MODEL

P · STL · MLB

1.8

Projection

-2.8

Floor (p10)

5.8

Ceiling (p90)

42%

Boom (1.5x)

37%

Bust (0.6x)

3.0

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-07-02	@ ATL	6.2	-	-	-	2
2026-06-27	vs MIA	-0.5	-	-	-	0
2026-06-23	vs AZ	-5.7	-	-	-	1
2026-06-21	@ KC	2.3	-	-	-	1
2026-06-19	@ KC	5.9	-	-	-	1
2026-06-17	vs SD	4.4	-	-	-	1
2026-06-13	@ MIN	7.8	-	-	-	2
2026-06-10	@ NYM	6.5	-	-	-	1
2026-06-09	@ NYM	4.2	-	-	-	1
2026-05-23	@ CIN	5.7	-	-	-	2
2026-05-21	vs PIT	4.4	-	-	-	1
2026-05-20	vs PIT	-7.5	-	-	-	1
2026-05-17	vs KC	1.6	-	-	-	0
2026-05-14	@ ATH	5.7	-	-	-	2
2026-05-13	@ ATH	3.6	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts