Jason AlexanderFITTED MODEL

P · HOU · MLB

4.4

Projection

-3.2

Floor (p10)

13.0

Ceiling (p90)

30%

Boom (1.5x)

39%

Bust (0.6x)

10.5

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-05-26	@ TEX	-1.9	-	-	-	4
2026-05-19	@ MIN	18.5	-	-	-	4
2026-05-06	vs LAD	3.1	-	-	-	5
2026-04-30	@ BAL	-6.5	-	-	-	1
2025-09-26	@ LAA	11.5	-	-	-	4
2025-09-21	vs SEA	-13.8	-	-	-	1
2025-09-15	vs TEX	14.9	-	-	-	5
2025-09-10	@ TOR	19.4	-	-	-	3
2025-09-03	vs NYY	12.4	-	-	-	6
2025-08-28	vs COL	17.4	-	-	-	8
2025-08-21	@ BAL	8.6	-	-	-	3
2025-08-16	vs BAL	19.1	-	-	-	6
2025-08-10	@ NYY	17.1	-	-	-	3
2025-08-04	@ MIA	23.1	-	-	-	6
2025-07-29	vs WSH	14.3	-	-	-	6

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts