Carlos VargasFITTED MODEL

P · SEA · MLB

2.1

Projection

-2.5

Floor (p10)

6.1

Ceiling (p90)

40%

Boom (1.5x)

36%

Bust (0.6x)

2.4

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-09-25	vs COL	4.1	-	-	-	2
2025-09-23	vs COL	4.2	-	-	-	1
2025-09-21	@ HOU	3.1	-	-	-	1
2025-09-20	@ HOU	-8.2	-	-	-	0
2025-09-17	@ KC	0.8	-	-	-	0
2025-09-16	@ KC	-1.9	-	-	-	0
2025-09-12	vs LAA	7.0	-	-	-	3
2025-09-11	vs LAA	4.2	-	-	-	1
2025-09-10	vs STL	4.4	-	-	-	1
2025-09-05	@ ATL	5.7	-	-	-	2
2025-09-02	@ TB	2.8	-	-	-	1
2025-09-01	@ TB	5.3	-	-	-	1
2025-08-26	vs SD	2.7	-	-	-	0
2025-08-24	vs ATH	-2.8	-	-	-	1
2025-08-18	@ PHI	4.3	-	-	-	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts