Matthew BoydFITTED MODEL

P · CHC · MLB

11.8

Projection

-0.9

Floor (p10)

23.8

Ceiling (p90)

28%

Boom (1.5x)

30%

Bust (0.6x)

10.6

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-06-30	vs SD	3.9	-	-	-	2
2026-06-25	@ NYM	13.7	-	-	-	4
2026-05-03	vs AZ	16.5	-	-	-	5
2026-04-27	@ SD	1.0	-	-	-	4
2026-04-22	vs PHI	13.5	-	-	-	5
2026-04-01	vs LAA	28.4	-	-	-	10
2026-03-26	vs WSH	6.0	-	-	-	7
2025-09-24	vs NYM	11.6	-	-	-	3
2025-09-17	@ PIT	2.8	-	-	-	5
2025-09-12	vs TB	1.1	-	-	-	1
2025-09-06	vs WSH	12.9	-	-	-	3
2025-08-31	@ COL	10.7	-	-	-	5
2025-08-26	@ SF	12.6	-	-	-	8
2025-08-19	vs MIL	4.6	-	-	-	3
2025-08-14	@ TOR	19.9	-	-	-	5

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts