Fraser EllardFITTED MODEL

P · CWS · MLB

2.8

Projection

-1.7

Floor (p10)

6.5

Ceiling (p90)

33%

Boom (1.5x)

33%

Bust (0.6x)

2.3

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-09-26	@ WSH	2.8	-	-	-	1
2025-09-24	@ NYY	1.7	-	-	-	1
2025-09-20	vs SD	-3.6	-	-	-	1
2025-09-16	vs BAL	1.9	-	-	-	0
2025-09-14	@ CLE	0.1	-	-	-	0
2025-09-13	@ CLE	1.6	-	-	-	1
2025-09-10	vs TB	3.6	-	-	-	1
2025-09-09	vs TB	5.7	-	-	-	2
2025-09-04	@ MIN	5.2	-	-	-	2
2025-09-01	@ MIN	6.0	-	-	-	2
2025-07-11	vs CLE	4.2	-	-	-	1
2025-05-03	vs HOU	0.3	-	-	-	2
2025-04-30	vs MIL	6.2	-	-	-	2
2025-04-09	@ CLE	5.7	-	-	-	2
2025-04-06	@ DET	-6.3	-	-	-	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts