Tyler FergusonFITTED MODEL

P · CHC · MLB

3.0

Projection

-1.4

Floor (p10)

6.8

Ceiling (p90)

31%

Boom (1.5x)

31%

Bust (0.6x)

3.9

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-06-30	vs SD	4.2	-	-	-	1
2026-06-28	@ MIL	2.9	-	-	-	1
2026-06-27	@ MIL	2.8	-	-	-	1
2026-06-24	@ NYM	8.5	-	-	-	2
2026-06-11	@ COL	5.2	-	-	-	3
2026-05-05	@ PHI	-5.4	-	-	-	1
2025-09-28	vs KC	1.5	-	-	-	0
2025-09-27	vs KC	5.0	-	-	-	2
2025-09-23	vs HOU	8.5	-	-	-	2
2025-09-20	@ PIT	6.2	-	-	-	2
2025-09-17	@ BOS	6.4	-	-	-	3
2025-09-14	vs CIN	0.1	-	-	-	0
2025-09-12	vs CIN	8.6	-	-	-	3
2025-09-09	vs BOS	2.2	-	-	-	0
2025-09-07	@ LAA	1.6	-	-	-	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts