Matt BowmanFITTED MODEL

P · BAL · MLB

1.7

Projection

-2.9

Floor (p10)

5.7

Ceiling (p90)

43%

Boom (1.5x)

38%

Bust (0.6x)

1.2

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-08-22	vs HOU	-0.2	-	-	-	1
2025-07-01	@ TEX	-7.0	-	-	-	1
2025-06-07	@ ATH	8.1	-	-	-	2
2025-05-28	vs STL	5.9	-	-	-	2
2025-05-07	@ MIN	3.6	-	-	-	1
2025-05-06	@ MIN	-2.3	-	-	-	1
2025-05-04	vs KC	-0.9	0	0	0	1
2025-04-29	vs NYY	-2.8	-	-	-	2
2025-04-27	@ DET	3.6	-	-	-	1
2025-04-26	@ DET	5.2	-	-	-	1
2025-04-22	@ WSH	4.5	-	-	-	2
2025-04-19	vs CIN	-3.8	-	-	-	0
2025-04-18	vs CIN	1.1	-	-	-	0
2025-04-15	vs CLE	2.2	-	-	-	0
2025-04-13	vs TOR	1.1	-	-	-	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts