Ryan FernandezFITTED MODEL

P · STL · MLB

5.5

Projection

-2.1

Floor (p10)

14.1

Ceiling (p90)

27%

Boom (1.5x)

35%

Bust (0.6x)

5.1

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-07-02	@ ATL	3.1	-	-	-	0
2026-06-30	@ ATL	2.3	-	-	-	1
2026-05-30	vs CHC	3.0	-	-	-	1
2026-05-26	@ MIL	5.0	-	-	-	3
2026-05-23	@ CIN	12.5	-	-	-	4
2026-04-27	@ PIT	12.5	-	-	-	4
2026-04-22	@ MIA	5.0	-	-	-	2
2026-04-20	@ MIA	0.5	-	-	-	1
2026-04-13	vs CLE	5.3	-	-	-	2
2025-09-28	@ CHC	5.0	-	-	-	2
2025-09-27	@ CHC	1.1	-	-	-	2
2025-09-22	@ SF	4.4	-	-	-	1
2025-09-21	vs MIL	5.7	-	-	-	2
2025-09-19	vs MIL	5.0	-	-	-	2
2025-09-17	vs CIN	6.2	-	-	-	2

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts