Jesse ChavezFITTED MODEL

P · ATL · MLB

1.6

Projection

-3.0

Floor (p10)

5.6

Ceiling (p90)

43%

Boom (1.5x)

38%

Bust (0.6x)

2.2

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-07-13	@ STL	-5.7	-	-	-	1
2025-07-08	@ ATH	7.8	-	-	-	4
2025-04-25	@ AZ	2.5	-	-	-	2
2025-03-31	@ LAD	2.1	-	-	-	1
2024-09-17	@ CIN	4.0	-	-	-	2
2024-09-10	@ WSH	12.2	-	-	-	3
2024-09-08	vs TOR	1.6	-	-	-	0
2024-09-07	vs TOR	1.6	-	-	-	0
2024-08-31	@ PHI	4.2	-	-	-	1
2024-08-27	@ MIN	-6.2	-	-	-	0
2024-08-25	vs WSH	3.0	-	-	-	2
2024-08-15	@ SF	-3.4	-	-	-	1
2024-08-13	@ SF	6.2	-	-	-	2
2024-08-09	@ COL	3.0	-	-	-	1
2024-08-06	vs MIL	-0.5	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts