Tyler MatzekFITTED MODEL

P · NYY · MLB

1.8

Projection

-2.8

Floor (p10)

5.8

Ceiling (p90)

42%

Boom (1.5x)

37%

Bust (0.6x)

0.7

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-05-14	@ SEA	2.3	-	-	-	1
2025-05-11	@ ATH	3.6	0	0	0	1
2025-05-10	@ ATH	-0.5	-	-	-	1
2025-05-06	vs SD	4.2	-	-	-	1
2025-05-04	vs TB	2.0	-	-	-	1
2025-04-29	@ BAL	0.5	-	-	-	1
2025-04-27	vs TOR	0.5	0	0	0	1
2024-05-04	@ LAD	-6.3	-	-	-	0
2024-04-28	vs CLE	1.6	-	-	-	0
2024-04-26	vs CLE	-0.5	-	-	-	1
2024-04-21	vs TEX	-0.9	-	-	-	1
2024-04-19	vs TEX	5.7	-	-	-	2
2024-04-16	@ HOU	6.2	-	-	-	2
2024-04-11	vs NYM	-3.5	-	-	-	0
2024-04-09	vs NYM	-4.3	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts