Caleb FergusonFITTED MODEL

P · CIN · MLB

3.1

Projection

-1.3

Floor (p10)

6.8

Ceiling (p90)

30%

Boom (1.5x)

31%

Bust (0.6x)

3.1

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-06-30	@ MIL	2.3	-	-	-	1
2026-06-27	@ PIT	1.6	-	-	-	1
2026-06-26	@ PIT	3.6	-	-	-	1
2026-06-23	vs MIL	0.9	-	-	-	0
2026-06-21	@ NYY	3.6	-	-	-	1
2026-06-19	@ NYY	3.1	-	-	-	0
2026-06-15	vs NYM	3.7	-	-	-	2
2026-06-13	vs AZ	2.3	-	-	-	1
2026-06-10	@ SD	-4.5	-	-	-	0
2026-06-09	@ SD	-0.5	-	-	-	0
2026-06-07	@ STL	3.6	-	-	-	1
2026-06-03	vs KC	5.0	-	-	-	1
2026-06-01	vs KC	7.3	-	-	-	2
2026-05-29	vs ATL	9.2	-	-	-	3
2026-05-27	@ NYM	5.0	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts