Nick BurdiFITTED MODEL

P · BOS · MLB

4.5

Projection

-3.1

Floor (p10)

13.1

Ceiling (p90)

30%

Boom (1.5x)

39%

Bust (0.6x)

3.1

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-06-02	vs LAA	3.6	-	-	-	1
2025-05-31	@ ATL	9.9	-	-	-	3
2025-05-17	vs ATL	3.5	-	-	-	1
2025-05-16	vs ATL	0.8	-	-	-	0
2024-05-23	vs SEA	1.6	-	-	-	1
2024-05-21	vs SEA	0.3	-	-	-	1
2024-05-18	vs CWS	7.9	-	-	-	2
2024-05-12	@ TB	-3.8	-	-	-	0
2024-05-10	@ TB	0.8	-	-	-	0
2024-04-16	@ TOR	6.0	-	-	-	2
2024-04-14	@ CLE	5.7	-	-	-	2
2024-04-07	vs TOR	0.9	-	-	-	0
2024-04-05	vs TOR	2.3	-	-	-	1
2024-04-01	@ AZ	4.2	-	-	-	1
2024-03-31	@ HOU	3.5	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts