Burch SmithFITTED MODEL

P · DET · MLB

3.9

Projection

-0.5

Floor (p10)

8.2

Ceiling (p90)

27%

Boom (1.5x)

29%

Bust (0.6x)

3.5

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-05-21	vs CLE	-0.3	-	-	-	1
2026-05-19	vs CLE	1.6	-	-	-	0
2026-05-17	vs TOR	4.4	-	-	-	1
2026-05-15	vs TOR	5.9	-	-	-	1
2026-05-12	@ NYM	-1.1	-	-	-	1
2026-05-09	@ KC	-5.0	-	-	-	0
2026-05-06	vs BOS	3.6	-	-	-	1
2026-05-05	vs BOS	11.9	-	-	-	4
2026-05-03	vs TEX	1.6	-	-	-	0
2026-05-01	vs TEX	6.7	-	-	-	3
2026-04-28	@ ATL	8.7	-	-	-	4
2026-04-25	@ CIN	9.3	-	-	-	3
2026-04-23	vs MIL	3.8	-	-	-	1
2024-09-17	vs SF	10.5	-	-	-	3
2024-09-09	@ BOS	-9.5	-	-	-	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts