Kyle NelsonFITTED MODEL

P · AZ · MLB

0.5

Projection

-4.1

Floor (p10)

4.5

Ceiling (p90)

50%

Boom (1.5x)

44%

Bust (0.6x)

1.7

Avg (last 14)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-08-05	vs SD	-3.8	-	-	-	0
2025-08-03	@ ATH	1.6	-	-	-	1
2025-08-01	@ ATH	3.6	-	-	-	1
2024-04-22	@ STL	-2.6	-	-	-	0
2024-04-18	@ SF	-0.3	-	-	-	1
2024-04-16	vs CHC	-6.3	-	-	-	0
2024-04-15	vs CHC	4.2	-	-	-	1
2024-04-13	vs STL	2.4	-	-	-	0
2024-04-09	@ COL	0.9	-	-	-	0
2024-04-07	@ ATL	7.8	-	-	-	2
2024-04-06	@ ATL	4.9	-	-	-	2
2024-04-01	vs NYY	5.9	-	-	-	1
2024-03-30	vs COL	1.6	-	-	-	0
2024-03-28	vs COL	4.2	-	-	-	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts