Scott McGoughFITTED MODEL

P · ATH · MLB

2.2

Projection

-2.5

Floor (p10)

6.2

Ceiling (p90)

40%

Boom (1.5x)

35%

Bust (0.6x)

2.3

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-09-28	vs KC	5.7	-	-	-	2
2025-09-25	vs HOU	5.9	-	-	-	2
2025-09-21	@ PIT	1.1	-	-	-	1
2025-09-08	vs BOS	2.1	-	-	-	2
2025-09-06	@ LAA	-1.6	-	-	-	1
2025-09-01	@ STL	7.3	-	-	-	3
2025-05-31	vs WSH	-6.0	-	-	-	1
2025-05-28	vs PIT	-0.9	-	-	-	1
2025-05-26	vs PIT	-1.2	-	-	-	0
2025-05-23	@ STL	2.2	-	-	-	0
2025-05-19	@ LAD	4.2	-	-	-	1
2025-05-16	vs COL	6.2	-	-	-	2
2025-05-03	@ PHI	3.3	-	-	-	0
2024-09-28	vs SD	-4.5	-	-	-	0
2024-09-23	vs SF	10.1	-	-	-	4

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts