dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Chuba Hubbard carries

Chuba Hubbard: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · CAR · NFL · baseline 8.9/game (2025, 15 games)
8.4
Median
1.5-16.9
80% range
4.7-12.6
50% range
19.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.58.416.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
4.0+79%
6.0+67%
8.0+53%
10.0+40%
12.0+28%
14.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Chuba Hubbard player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts