dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Courtland Sutton receptions

Courtland Sutton: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · DEN · NFL · baseline 4.4/game (2025, 17 games)
4.2
Median
1.4-7.6
80% range
2.5-5.9
50% range
8.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.44.27.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
2.0+84%
3.0+67%
4.0+52%
5.0+37%
6.0+23%
7.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Courtland Sutton player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts