dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tyrell Shavers targets

Tyrell Shavers: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · BUF · NFL · baseline 2.1/game (2025, 11 games)
1.7
Median
0.0-4.7
80% range
0.6-3.3
50% range
5.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.01.74.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+64%
2.0+44%
3.0+28%
4.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tyrell Shavers player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts