dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Elijah Arroyo targets

Elijah Arroyo: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · SEA · NFL · baseline 2.0/game (2025, 13 games)
1.6
Median
0.5-4.4
80% range
0.9-2.8
50% range
5.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.51.64.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+60%
2.0+40%
3.0+20%
4.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Elijah Arroyo player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts