dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Ty Chandler carries

Ty Chandler: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · NO · NFL · baseline 4.0/game (2024, 14 games)
2.9
Median
0.0-9.9
80% range
0.9-6.3
50% range
12.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.02.99.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+58%
4.0+39%
6.0+27%
8.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Ty Chandler player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts