dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Spencer Rattler passing yards

Spencer Rattler: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · NO · NFL · baseline 176/game (2025, 9 games)
188
Median
33-294
80% range
103-247
50% range
329
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

33188294
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+86%
100+75%
150+65%
200+44%
250+24%
300+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Spencer Rattler player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts