dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Spencer Rattler completions

Spencer Rattler: completionsFITTED MODEL

QB · NO · NFL · baseline 19/game (2025, 9 games)
20
Median
11-27
80% range
16-24
50% range
29
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

112027
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

completionsProbability
10+91%
15+81%
20+50%
25+18%
30+3%
35+0%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 562 QB completions games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Spencer Rattler player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts