dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Malik Willis passing yards

Malik Willis: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · MIA · NFL · baseline 106/game (2025, 4 games)
117
Median
-20-223
80% range
32-176
50% range
258
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-20117223
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+72%
100+58%
150+35%
200+16%
250+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Malik Willis player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts