dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jayden Reed targets

Jayden Reed: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · GB · NFL · baseline 4.4/game (2025, 5 games)
3.9
Median
0.9-8.3
80% range
2.3-6.2
50% range
9.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.93.98.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+78%
4.0+49%
6.0+27%
8.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jayden Reed player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts