dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jayden Reed receiving yards

Jayden Reed: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · GB · NFL · baseline 41/game (2025, 5 games)
35
Median
7-86
80% range
17-58
50% range
103
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

73586
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
20+70%
40+44%
60+24%
80+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jayden Reed player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts