dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Zack Moss receiving yards

Zack Moss: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 23/game (2024, 8 games)
18
Median
4-49
80% range
9-34
50% range
55
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

41849
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
10+71%
20+48%
30+32%
40+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 663 RB receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 76.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Zack Moss player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts