dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Kyle Monangai carries

Kyle Monangai: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · CHI · NFL · baseline 9.9/game (2025, 17 games)
9.4
Median
2.5-17.9
80% range
5.7-13.6
50% range
20.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.59.417.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
4.0+84%
6.0+73%
8.0+59%
10.0+46%
12.0+34%
14.0+23%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kyle Monangai player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts