dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tyjae Spears targets

Tyjae Spears: targetsFITTED MODEL

RB · TEN · NFL · baseline 3.8/game (2025, 13 games)
3.6
Median
1.3-6.5
80% range
2.3-5.5
50% range
7.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.33.66.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+92%
2.0+82%
3.0+62%
4.0+44%
5.0+31%
6.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tyjae Spears player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts