dfsforge / NFL forecasts / George Kittle targets

George Kittle: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · SF · NFL · baseline 6.3/game (2025, 11 games)
5.9
Median
2.5-10.7
80% range
4.0-8.1
50% range
12.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.55.910.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+95%
4.0+75%
6.0+48%
8.0+26%
10.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: George Kittle player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts