dfsforge / NFL forecasts / George Kittle receptions

George Kittle: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · SF · NFL · baseline 5.2/game (2025, 11 games)
5.0
Median
1.9-8.9
80% range
3.2-6.8
50% range
10.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.95.08.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
2.0+89%
4.0+64%
6.0+35%
8.0+15%
10.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: George Kittle player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts