dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Drake London targets

Drake London: targetsFITTED MODEL

Name: Drake London targets outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

WR · ATL · NFL · baseline 9.3/game (2025, 12 games)

9.2

Median

5.1-14.1

80% range

6.9-11.3

50% range

15.3

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targets	Probability
4.0+	95%
6.0+	83%
8.0+	62%
10.0+	41%
12.0+	19%
14.0+	10%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Drake London player page · all NFL forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts