dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Derek Carr pass attempts

Derek Carr: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · FA · NFL · baseline 28/game (2024, 10 games)
29
Median
15-39
80% range
24-34
50% range
41
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

152939
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
15+90%
20+84%
25+69%
30+45%
35+22%
40+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Derek Carr player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts