dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tommy DeVito passing yards

Tommy DeVito: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · NE · NFL · baseline 122/game (2023, 9 games)
134
Median
-20-240
80% range
49-193
50% range
275
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-20134240
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+75%
100+64%
150+42%
200+22%
250+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2023 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tommy DeVito player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts