dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tommy DeVito pass attempts

Tommy DeVito: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · NE · NFL · baseline 20/game (2023, 9 games)
21
Median
0-35
80% range
11-29
50% range
39
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

02135
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
10+77%
20+55%
30+21%
40+4%
50+0%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2023 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tommy DeVito player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts