dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Michael Penix passing yards

Michael Penix: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · ATL · NFL · baseline 220/game (2025, 9 games)
229
Median
118-317
80% range
167-275
50% range
341
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

118229317
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
100+92%
150+79%
200+63%
250+41%
300+15%
350+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Michael Penix player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts