dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Michael Penix pass attempts

Michael Penix: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · ATL · NFL · baseline 31/game (2025, 9 games)
32
Median
17-41
80% range
25-37
50% range
44
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

173241
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
20+86%
25+75%
30+58%
35+37%
40+14%
45+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Michael Penix player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts