dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Hayden Hurst receiving yards

Hayden Hurst: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

TE · FA · NFL · baseline 10/game (2024, 7 games)
6
Median
-4-33
80% range
-2-18
50% range
45
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-4633
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
10+38%
20+21%
30+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 887 TE receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 83.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Hayden Hurst player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts