dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Khalil Shakir targets

Khalil Shakir: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · BUF · NFL · baseline 5.9/game (2025, 16 games)
5.5
Median
2.0-10.4
80% range
3.6-7.9
50% range
11.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.05.510.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+70%
6.0+43%
8.0+24%
10.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Khalil Shakir player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts