dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Riley Leonard passing yards

Riley Leonard: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · IND · NFL · baseline 83/game (2025, 5 games)
95
Median
-20-201
80% range
10-153
50% range
236
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-2095201
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+67%
100+47%
150+26%
200+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Riley Leonard player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts