dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Ashton Jeanty targets

Ashton Jeanty: targetsFITTED MODEL

RB · LV · NFL · baseline 4.3/game (2025, 17 games)
3.9
Median
1.4-7.8
80% range
2.6-5.8
50% range
8.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.43.97.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+93%
2.0+83%
3.0+68%
4.0+49%
5.0+35%
6.0+23%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Ashton Jeanty player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts