dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Ashton Jeanty rushing yards

Ashton Jeanty: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · LV · NFL · baseline 57/game (2025, 17 games)
53
Median
18-101
80% range
32-77
50% range
117
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1853101
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
20+88%
40+66%
60+42%
80+23%
100+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 977 RB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Ashton Jeanty player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts