dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jacory Croskey-Merritt carries

Jacory Croskey-Merritt: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · WAS · NFL · baseline 10.3/game (2025, 17 games)
9.8
Median
2.8-18.3
80% range
6.1-14.0
50% range
20.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.89.818.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
4.0+86%
6.0+76%
8.0+62%
10.0+49%
12.0+36%
14.0+25%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jacory Croskey-Merritt player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts