Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.
Plain English: the curve shows where
this number usually lands - tall parts are common games, the shaded middle catches about 8 games in 10, and the
table below gives the chance of clearing each line.
Chance of reaching
carries
Probability
2.0+
87%
4.0+
70%
6.0+
50%
8.0+
30%
10.0+
15%
12.0+
5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is
learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the
baseline switches to the weekly line.
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical
game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a
training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app ·
Accuracy receipts