dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tony Pollard targets

Tony Pollard: targetsFITTED MODEL

RB · TEN · NFL · baseline 2.4/game (2025, 17 games)
2.1
Median
0.3-5.2
80% range
1.0-3.5
50% range
5.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.32.15.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+76%
2.0+51%
3.0+34%
4.0+20%
5.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tony Pollard player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts