dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Diontae Johnson receptions

Diontae Johnson: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · FA · NFL · baseline 3.0/game (2024, 11 games)
2.7
Median
0.4-6.0
80% range
1.4-4.4
50% range
7.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.42.76.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+82%
2.0+63%
3.0+44%
4.0+29%
5.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Diontae Johnson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts