dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Christian McCaffrey receiving yards

Christian McCaffrey: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · SF · NFL · baseline 54/game (2025, 17 games)
51
Median
31-83
80% range
39-67
50% range
94
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

315183
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
30+91%
40+72%
50+52%
60+34%
70+21%
80+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 663 RB receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 76.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Christian McCaffrey player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts