dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Derrick Henry rushing yards

Derrick Henry: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · BAL · NFL · baseline 94/game (2025, 17 games)
90
Median
48-144
80% range
64-122
50% range
160
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4890144
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
25+99%
50+88%
75+64%
100+41%
125+23%
150+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 977 RB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Derrick Henry player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts