dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Woody Marks carries

Woody Marks: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · HOU · NFL · baseline 12/game (2025, 16 games)
12
Median
5-20
80% range
8-16
50% range
22
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

51220
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
6+86%
8+75%
10+62%
12+48%
14+36%
16+25%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Woody Marks player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts