dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Woody Marks receptions

Woody Marks: receptionsFITTED MODEL

RB · HOU · NFL · baseline 1.5/game (2025, 16 games)
0.9
Median
0.0-3.7
80% range
0.2-2.4
50% range
4.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.00.93.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+49%
2.0+29%
3.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 637 RB receptions games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Woody Marks player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts