dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tucker Kraft targets

Tucker Kraft: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · GB · NFL · baseline 5.5/game (2025, 8 games)
5.0
Median
2.0-9.8
80% range
3.4-7.4
50% range
10.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.05.09.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+67%
6.0+39%
8.0+20%
10.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tucker Kraft player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts